Outlier Weekly

Three formulas. One weighting. The rare-event edge most prediction-market traders miss.

Weekly research on mispriced rare-event markets on Polymarket and Kalshi — applying a synthesized three-formula system (Poisson distributions, Shannon entropy, Taleb fat-tail asymmetry) weighted 40/35/25. The methodology is open: every issue shows the math, the inputs, and the forward-tracked call.

Get the next issue

Text: Read the methodology → Here

Link: about